Rates and central banks
Policy paths, real yields, and the shape of the curve rather than the headline print.
Top-down global macro, written against the consensus. One regime call, one chart, and the data point that would prove it wrong.
Top-down means starting with liquidity, policy and the cycle, and only then asking what the market has agreed on. Contrarian means writing only when my answer differs from that agreement — and saying what would prove me wrong.
Every desk runs the same story until the regime breaks it.
Great company, wrong regime, poor return.
The forecast everyone holds is the one already paid for.
A view with no falsifier is a mood, not a thesis.
Growth, inflation, liquidity. Where we are, in one line.
What the market is currently paid to believe.
Where I differ, and how much of that is already in the price.
Which asset carries the view with the best asymmetry.
The data point that would make me wrong. Stated up front.
Old calls revisited in public, dated. Nothing deleted.
Macro decides the regime, but arithmetic decides what you keep. These are illustrative models, not forecasts.
Fixed rate, monthly compounding. Real returns wobble and can go negative.
Falls and recoveries are not symmetric. Down 50% needs up 100% just to get back to flat — which is why position size beats entry timing.
Recovery = loss ÷ (1 − loss). Ignores fees and taxes.
$100,000 at 7% a year, with and without the fee. The gap is the fee compounding against you — not the headline percentage.
Fee charged annually on assets. Illustrative only.
The market already adjusted for the information, so the news itself no longer moves the price.
Six recurring threads. Every issue starts at the top of the stack and works down to something you can actually hold.
Policy paths, real yields, and the shape of the curve rather than the headline print.
Reserves, fiscal flow, and the credit impulse. The second derivative leads the cycle.
The dollar as the world's tightening lever, and what it does to everyone else.
Which index leadership belongs to which macro regime, and when that swap happens.
Where the crowd is packed in, and where a small surprise moves a lot of money.
Every call dated in public, with the falsifier that was stated at the time.
No ads and no sponsors, so the only thing I have to protect is the record. If a call ages badly it stays up, dated, with what I got wrong.
No. It's education and commentary. I don't know your situation, horizon or risk tolerance, so I won't tell you what to buy. For real decisions, talk to a licensed adviser.
Top-down: start with liquidity, policy and the cycle, then work down to the asset, rather than starting with a company and hoping the macro cooperates. Contrarian: I only write when my read differs from what the market is already paid to believe. Agreeing with the consensus in public is free, and it's worth what you pay for it.
This publication is new, so there is no long record yet and I'm not going to invent one. Instead every call is dated in public from issue one, with the falsifier stated at the time. That record accumulates in the open, and you can judge it as it does.
Only when there is something worth sending. I write when the macro picture moves, not to fill a slot in a calendar. No alerts, no "last chance" emails.
No. Jargon gets decoded on first use. If you already run your own macro framework, some issues will feel basic and the disagreement section is the part for you.
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Educational and informational content only. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer. Investing carries the risk of losing part or all of your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The calculators on this page are illustrative models, not forecasts, and no figure here should be read as a claim about results.